Methodology: how PortCrowds estimates crowds

1. Official schedules, collected daily

We pull published cruise ship schedules from port authorities — the same bodies that assign berths. Each port page credits its source and shows when the data was last fetched. We currently track Nassau (Nassau Cruise Port), Cozumel (APIQROO), Philipsburg, St. Maarten (Port St. Maarten), and St. Thomas (WICO).

2. Passenger estimates from ship capacities

For each port-day we add up the published passenger capacity of every scheduled ship. That gives the estimated number of cruise passengers ashore. We don't pretend to know actual bookings — a ship can sail below capacity, so treat the figure as an upper-bound planning estimate.

3. Compared against a typical day

Raw passenger counts are hard to interpret, so we compare each day against the typical day for that port (the median daily total across our data):

• Not Crowded — under 60% of a typical day
• A Little Crowded — 60–90% of a typical day
• Crowded — 90–120% of a typical day
• Super Crowded — over 120% of a typical day

We also flag arrival overlap: when 3 or more ships arrive within the same hour, the morning rush at terminals and excursion meeting points is noticeably worse — even if the total passenger count looks moderate.

4. Provisional flags

Dates more than 7 days out are marked provisional. Cruise lines change itineraries for weather, maintenance, and operational reasons — sometimes with only days of notice. We re-check the 7-day window daily and flag changes.

Limitations

• Estimates use published capacities, not actual passenger counts.
• Some ports don't publish machine-readable schedules; we only cover ports with reliable official sources.
• Last-minute itinerary changes (especially around hurricane season) can make even near-term forecasts wrong — always confirm with your cruise line.
• Crew members also come ashore and aren't counted in passenger figures.